2econdsight

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GE 69.9%: Decisive Mandate or Definite Maybe?

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Many analyses have already been made of the 69.9% decisive mandate; how it came to be and what it may mean till the next GE.

About the only unreality that I observe is how many MSM published pundits and, in particular, the Straits Times and Tommy Koh (representing the civic/civil service elite) would dissect the factors influencing the vote swing but downplay or totally exclude the effect of pork barrel actions. ST with its ‘8 reasons’ and Tommy Koh with his ’10 reflections’ failed to mention the SG50 bonus pay-out for 82k civil servants ($41mil), the Special Edu Officer (EO) bonus for 30k EOs ($18mil) and the 4%-9% salary increase for teachers (est. $10mil/yr recurring based on average $5000 x 30k EOs x 6.5%)                                                                  .

82,000 civil servants and 30,000 teachers, assuming all are Singapore citizens, would make up nearly 4.5% of the electorate.

How credible is the MSM (and the complicit civic/civil service elites) when they omit such blatant, GE-timed pork barrel actions of the incumbent PAP government? Watch out for the next Reporter Sans Borders ranking…how far further will SG MSM go? And, sadly, sadly so, for those of us looking for leadership to instigate the Change we Must for SG, we can forget the civic/civil elites…they appear to have sold their souls for a seat at the PAP’s table.


A Decisive Mandate?

On the side of the victors, PAP leaders have been gushing about the clear mandate and strong support that voters appeared to have given to them. The only voice, audible one, that came with a hint of humility is Mr Tharman’s. How will it all pan out over the next 4-5 years before the next GE? Who knows?

On the Opposition side, an air of despondence was almost palpable. What a diff’rence a (GE) day made…from a GE2011 high, a whole lotta of confidence going into 11 Sep, only to be given a rude shock by fellow Singaporeans.

Well, to both on different sides of the political divide and to all Singaporeans out there, likewise on different sides of the divide – or that critical mass in the middle ground that voted for the Opposition (too few) or the PAP (too many) this GE2015, I’ve got news for you.

No need to be too delirious in victory nor despondent in loss. It is far too early to tell whither Singapore.


A Definite Maybe
Consider this story:

A man who lived on the northern frontier of China was skilled in interpreting events. One day, for no reason, his horse ran away to the nomads across the border. Everyone tried to console him, but his father said, “What makes you so sure this isn’t a blessing?”

Some months later his horse returned, bringing a splendid nomad stallion. Everyone congratulated him, but his father said, “What makes you so sure this isn’t a disaster?”

Their household was richer by a fine horse, which his son loved to ride. One day he fell and broke his hip. Everyone tried to console him, but his father said, “What makes you so sure this isn’t a blessing?”

A year later the nomads came in force across the border, and every able-bodied man took his bow and went into battle. The Chinese frontiersmen lost nine of every ten men. Only because the son was lame did the father and son survive to take care of each other.

Truly, blessing turns to disaster, and disaster to blessing: the changes have no end, nor can the mystery be fathomed.

The 2011 and 2015 results themselves are illustrative of how changes have no end nor can the mystery be fathomed. I disagree that Singaporeans are daft. “Kiasu”, definitely. Daft, perhaps not. If voters can swing the way they did from 2006 to 2011 and then from 2011 to 2015, it can only mean that the next GE is anything but certain to follow a trend of any kind.

Last Word (From PM Zhou En Lai)
When queried on the 1968 students’ riots in Paris (apparently, not the 1789 storming of the Bastille) in a discussion during Nixon’s 1972 China visit, PM Zhou replied, “it is too early to say”.

So, what of the 69.9% decisive mandate and its ramifications or results?

Too early to say.

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4 thoughts on “GE 69.9%: Decisive Mandate or Definite Maybe?

  1. Yes too early to tell. The vote swing according to Tharman and others was that there is heightened economic uncertainties so voters reach for the tried and the tested so to speak. The trouble is all that Singapore’s quick recovery from the global financial crisis and strong growth until 2013 was far more due to the flood of liquidity from the West’s QE programs than from that much self advertised “foresight” of the government. It is likely that the post GFC growth spurt had essentially been borrowed from future growth. It explains why the economy is slowing well before the threat of contracting liquidity stemming first from the Fed ending its QE, then potentially raising interest rates and finally the tightening credit conditions due to emerging markets turmoil.

    Hubris comes before the fall.

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  2. Sorry to pour cold water. In hindsight, what could the opposition have done to avoid the disastrous outcome? Nothing I can think of. So there is really no hope of change in Singapore except by some external events.

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  3. I disagree with your analysis. What the government has done over the 5 years before the election is basically pretty much the same except for a few more carrots here and there. It is still pretty much on the same course. 2011 was pretty much a show of dissatisfaction by the people. If the carrots dished out and the lky effect can reverse the downward trend of pap’s popularity while people remained totally blind that this government’s policy hasn’t changed much says a lot how daft Singaporeans are especially those who voted for opposition in 2011 but switched to pap in 2015.

    Election is the only way we can tell the government anything. Why did the government choose to introduce the benefits for the pioneer generation only after 2011 when these pioneers have always been around? This government is afraid of nothing except GE. We will be screwed indefinitely when peanuts here and there are enough to keep pap in power.

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    • Hi! Thx for sharing yr thots.

      “A week is a long time in politics”

      ‘Xmen’ earlier wrote that ‘there is really no hope of change in Singapore except by some external events.’ I have a slightly different view. A black swan event will come around, whether internally or externally, when least expected. Then will there be changes.

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